ENTRY-CONFIRMATION-STUDY-0001

The current protocol.

A public, human-readable summary of the frozen ENTRY Confirmation study. This page summarizes the scientific protocol; it does not authorize Fresh execution, Historical TEST or deployment.

3 ARMS30 FROZEN CANDIDATES360 SEALED EPISODESTEST LOCKED
hypothesis

Require repeated directional intent before entry.

The study asks whether a small number of consecutive identical directional requests can increase entry selectivity and reduce execution drag without changing directional symmetry, costs, leverage, sizing, risk limits, reward coefficients, market features, PPO hyperparameters or the 30-minute decision cadence.

arms

Exactly 1, 2 and 3 confirmations.

EXP-0012 · CONTROLN = 1Directional entry admitted immediately.
EXP-0013N = 2Two consecutive identical requests required.
EXP-0014N = 3Three consecutive identical requests required.
state machine

Pending intent is Markov-visible.

While FLAT

FLAT cancels pending confirmation. A new LONG/SHORT starts count 1. The same direction increments the count. Opposite direction replaces pending direction and resets count to 1. Until threshold is reached, effective action remains FLAT.

While positioned

Same-position HOLD is preserved. Voluntary FLAT exit is immediate. In treatment arms, an opposite-direction request first closes to FLAT and begins pending confirmation for the opposite direction. Forced risk close always has priority.

observation contract

472 parent features + 2 treatment-state features.

IndexFeatureEncoding
0…471Frozen parent observationUnchanged definition/order/normalization/provenance
472pending_directionSHORT −1.0 · NONE 0.0 · LONG +1.0
473pending_confirmation_progresscount / 3 → 0, 1/3 or 2/3
clocks and PPO

One treatment variable; parent stack stays fixed.

30mOuter PPO decision cadence
1mExecution / accounting / funding / risk clock
[256,256]Policy and value networks · ReLU
CPUSB3 PPO · MlpPolicy · n_envs=1 · fixed seed
training budget

Ten checkpoints per arm, none selected from TRAIN performance.

33,340Outer transitions per arm
3,334Checkpoint spacing
30Total SHA256-frozen candidates
Candidate outer timesteps:
3,334 · 6,668 · 10,002 · 13,336 · 16,670
20,004 · 23,338 · 26,672 · 30,006 · 33,340
Fresh Internal Validation

84 days · 120,960 rows · 360 episodes.

As of 18 Sep 2026 the full source does not yet exist, so candidate performance remains sealed.

2026-08-24Period start UTC
2026-11-15Period end UTC
120,960Required one-minute rows
12Disjoint windows
Snapshot at 18 Sep 2026: approximately 30.16% of the calendar reserve elapsed. This is time progress only, not performance.
window contract

120,000 controlled action minutes.

10,000Action minutes per window
960Initial source rows before first action range
3603 arms × 10 candidates × 12 windows
eligibility and selection

Positive economics are mandatory.

Candidate eligibility

0 risk-terminated windows; strictly positive median and mean actual net economic return; no permanently-FLAT zero-return behavior.

Ranking

Median return → mean return → mean maximum drawdown → exact residual tie = AMBIGUOUS. No least-negative fallback.

future TEST

Not available for this decision stage.

The next Historical TEST is preregistered as the next contiguous 120,960 one-minute rows after Fresh Validation, expected 2026-11-16 through 2027-02-07. It remains locked unless Fresh selection yields exactly one champion and an independent future TEST authorization chain is frozen.

No champion → TEST remains permanently locked for this lineage. TEST may evaluate exactly one selected champion and may not compare checkpoints.